Interpreting the USCIS processing times report

By Suzanne Lazicki

The USCIS website has a Check Case Processing Times page that offers processing time information for immigration forms. Enter a form number, and the system will return an “estimated time range” and “receipt date for a case inquiry” for that form.

For example, the USCIS processing time report for Form I-526 looks like this as of May 11, 2020:

This information is very important for petitioners, because it shapes expectations about normal processing. At the same time, the report is frequently misinterpreted, not least by USCIS. The report uses a methodology that does not even claim to define normal processing.

Does the USCIS Check Case Processing Times Page reflect the way that USCIS currently processes petitions?

USCIS processing time reports are meaningful to the extent that this claim, made on the report page, is true: “We generally process cases in the order we receive them.”

The reports provide months and dates that could be applied in the context of first-in-first-out (FIFO) processing, assuming that the processing time for any given case can be estimated with reference to processing for older and younger cases.

In fact, USCIS processing departs significantly from FIFO order. This is obvious for all forms with an “estimated time range” showing years between the high and low end of the processing time range. For certain forms, USCIS explicitly does not follow FIFO order.

For Form I-526, USCIS has implemented a new “visa availability approach” that arranges I-526 processing order by visa availability, resulting in country-specific processing times. The USCIS Q&A about the Visa Availability Approach promised in March 2020 that “Petitioners can check when to expect processing of their Form I-526 petition on the USCIS Processing Times page that will be revised.” However, the processing times page has not been revised as of May 2020. The report still provides a single estimated time range for Form I-526, with timing information consistent with previous reports. The report still does not reflect the reality that some I-526 petitioners can expect much shorter processing times than others based on visa availability.

Does the “estimated time range” on the Check Case Processing Times Page refer to the age of petitions that USCIS is processing now?

No, not exactly. For example, an estimated time range of 30 to 50 months does not mean that USCIS is currently processing cases 30 to 50 months old.

An estimated time range of 30 to 50 months means that 50% of petitions recently processed were less than 30 months old, and fewer than 7% were older than 50 months old.

On the Check Case Processing Times page and the More Info page, USCIS explains the reporting methodology for forms including Form I-526, I-829, and I-924.

• We calculate processing times by using historical data of completed cases.
• The estimated time range displayed is based on data captured approximately two months prior to updating the page.
• The first number in the estimated time range is the time it takes to complete 50% of cases (the median).
• The second number in the estimated time range is the time it takes to complete 93% of cases.

Therefore, it’s wrong to interpret and treat the estimated time range as a definition of normal processing.  What the report explicitly provides is two signposts on the road to delayed processing. If a Form I-526 has been pending 31 months, then a reported “estimated time range” of 30 to 50 months constitutes evidence that the petition is delayed. Because the report states that 30 months is the median for recent processing – i.e. that over half of petitions processed two months prior had been pending less than that amount of time. Meanwhile, a petition pending at the high end of the range is an extreme outlier by definition: more delayed than 93% of other petitions recently processed.

Does the “receipt date for case inquiry” define the limit between normal processing and unreasonable delay?

The “receipt date for case inquiry” on the Check Case Processing Times page defines the boundary for unreasonable delay simply and only because USCIS says it does. This date does not correspond to any other definition or data for normal processing.

The Check Case Processing Times page states:

• The “Receipt date for a case inquiry” is the upper end of the estimated time range, converted to a date.
• We have posted a “Receipt date for a case inquiry” in the table below to show when you can inquire about your case. If your receipt date is before the “Receipt date for a case inquiry,” you can submit an “outside normal processing time” service request online.

The page does not explain why being outside the 93rd percentile of processing times for recently decided cases should be accepted as the boundary for normal processing.

The easiest way to discredit the “receipt date for a case inquiry” for a form is to compare it against processing data for that form reported on the USCIS Citizenship & Immigration Data page.

Consider that in December 2019, processing time reports for Form I-526 gave case inquiry dates in September 2015. This officially means that in October 2019, 7% of I-526 processed had receipt dates in September 2015 or earlier. But demonstrably, this does not reflect normal processing.

I-526 performance data shows that the number of I-526 processed from September 2015 to October 2019 vastly exceeds the number of I-526 pending in September 2015. If the process were FIFO, as claimed, all the cases pending in September 2015 would have been processed long before October 2019.

According to the data, an I-526 petition from September 2015 still unprocessed in October 2019 was not at the edge of normal FIFO processing: it was out-of-order by over 24,000 places. Clearly, that I-526 petitioner should’ve been able to inquire and complain long ago – at least as early as mid-2017, when the number of I-526 processed since he filed began to exceed the number of I-526 pending when he filed.